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StrictJust a few more days to go until campaign season is over. Elizabeth and I have both been run ragged these past couple weeks, and it only gets worse before it gets better. I hope Al and Jackie still recognize us when this is all over!
I’m thrilled about the direction this country is taking with regards to voter attitudes. Voter registrations are way up, people are turning out to vote early in droves, and overall voter turnout is expected to blow away any other year for which data was taken. It’s good to see so many people actually taking part in democracy.
I feel completely psyched about the candidates I’ve been campaigning for this year. I feel best about Mitch Daniels’ chances for being elected governor, but I have a pretty good feeling that Mike Sodrel will make it too in his congressional seat. These two men have run the cleanest campaigns I’ve ever been a part of and they both deserve to win.
Locally, we have a very good shot at gaining Republican control of the county council for the first time in the history of Clark County. The Democrats who have been running our county have made an absolute mess of our finances and have raised record levels of new taxes. People are finally getting tired of it and may actually forget their party ties long enough to do something about it this year.
So, here are my predictions for election night; we’ll see how many I get right :)
Bush will win re-election. The popular vote will be very close, but he will have enough of an electoral advantage that it won’t drag on like last time. The thing about Kerry is, if he were half the campaigner that Clinton was, I think he would be up by 10 points by now. Instead he wasted the entire first half of his campaign talking about Vietnam, and then failed to articulate an Iraq strategy in time to get the point across to people. Instead of using his convention to set forth his agenda, he beat the Vietnam horse to death some more.
Then he had to use the whole month of August to dig back out of the hole he was in when the inadvertent attacks on his service came out. And finally, he changed his staff so much during the final stretch that his campaign has lacked direction for the past month. Whoever thought up that ridiculous goose-hunting expedition is sorely out of touch with the voting public if they think it actually picked up any votes.
Of course, Bush isn’t without fault either. His wholly lackluster performance in the first debate gave Kerry a much-needed shot of momentum. Fortunately, Kerry was unable to convert that momemtum into a decisive lead. If Bush would have had better responses to Kerry’s claims (such as saying he would never send troops to combat without the equipment they need) instead of repeating his worn-out stump lines, he would now be up by ten points.
As I said, I feel best about Daniels’ chances this year. I think he’ll win by 6 points. He is getting endorsements from many organizations that conventional wisdom says should go for the Democrats, and people are responding very well to his positive message of reform. Seeing Kernan lose will be a happy moment for me personally, after he kept two companies of my battalion waiting on the plane for 30 minutes after we got back from Iraq, while our families and friends that we hadn’t seen in a year waited outside in -15°F weather. And this was after our plane was already an hour late! Anyone who would put his National Guard through that because he couldn’t show up on time for a photo op doesn’t deserve to be in office.
I think Mike Sodrel is going to squeak by Baron Hill, but this race will be very dependent on turnout. People in the 9th CD are finally realizing just how liberal Baron is, and that he doesn’t represent our values.
I think we will end up with at least three and maybe four seats on the county council. If Jim Smith wins at large, we gain not only his seat but we get to fill the vacancy from his district seat as well.
Anyhoo, that’s my take on where things stand, based on my experiences this year and how things are shaping up so far. I wish I could have been writing more during this campaign season but I just haven’t had the time.