Comments on: What Iraqis Really Think http://www.tobiasly.com/2003/09/14/what-iraqis-really-think/ My blog about triathlon training, technology, politics, and dogs Sun, 05 Feb 2012 11:49:30 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Sam Johnson http://www.tobiasly.com/2003/09/14/what-iraqis-really-think/comment-page-1/#comment-1555 Sam Johnson Tue, 27 Jan 2004 15:50:24 +0000 #comment-1555 Not to sound unappreciative, i would like to draw some caution to interpretation of poll statistics. On the question about which country Iraqis would like theirs modeled after, you'll note that <br /> 37% picked U.S.; <br /> at most 36% picked the bottom three; <br /> so at least 27% picked Saudi Arabia. <br /> A margin of 10 points isn't really "by far" in my opinion. Also, how many Iraqis did they really expect to choose Iran (with whom they've also been at war) or Syria (since Iraq is so fragmented among Baath, Sunni, and Shiite)? <br /> <br /> On the last bullet, notice it says 57% of Iraqis "with an opinion." This allows that possibly 80% of those polled answered "Not Sure" -- which is not quite as positive a result. <br /> <br /> With most polls -- in both the results AND, more subtly, the structure of the poll itself -- there is often a hidden agenda on the part of the pollster. One also must wonder about their sampling -- for example, if this poll picked predominantly people with a Western-type education, i think that would tend to influence the results. I would bet that similar questions in a poll conducted by an Iraqi would bring different results. <br /> <br /> I will say i totally agree that the media does WAY too much emphasis on the negative. Not to sound unappreciative, i would like to draw some caution to interpretation of poll statistics. On the question about which country Iraqis would like theirs modeled after, you’ll note that

37% picked U.S.;

at most 36% picked the bottom three;

so at least 27% picked Saudi Arabia.

A margin of 10 points isn’t really "by far" in my opinion. Also, how many Iraqis did they really expect to choose Iran (with whom they’ve also been at war) or Syria (since Iraq is so fragmented among Baath, Sunni, and Shiite)?

On the last bullet, notice it says 57% of Iraqis "with an opinion." This allows that possibly 80% of those polled answered "Not Sure" — which is not quite as positive a result.

With most polls — in both the results AND, more subtly, the structure of the poll itself — there is often a hidden agenda on the part of the pollster. One also must wonder about their sampling — for example, if this poll picked predominantly people with a Western-type education, i think that would tend to influence the results. I would bet that similar questions in a poll conducted by an Iraqi would bring different results.

I will say i totally agree that the media does WAY too much emphasis on the negative.

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